Page 4 - AWA Vol.41-No.9 issue

FAO Food Outlook points to broad-based increase
in global food commodity production

Current conditions point to broad-based increas- world rice stocks are forecast to increase by 2.2 per-
es in global food commodity production, alongside cent to a new record high.
strong consumption growth and a recovery in inven-
--World meat production is expected to rise by 1.4
tories, although weather variability and a clouded percent, led by poultry, while bovine meat output
trade outlook could pose risks, according to a new
report published today by the Food and Agriculture will likely contract due largely to reduced cattle in-
ventories in Brazil and the United States of America.
Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
--Global sugar stocks are anticipated to increase as
Global wheat and coarse grain outputs are on track
to set new records, with the same applying to rice bumper harvests in Brazil, along with strong outturns
in India and Thailand, are foreseen to drive produc-
production in Asia and the Latin America and Carib- tion up much faster than consumption.
bean region. Stocks-to-use ratios for these key sta-
ples are also forecast to rise, according to the new --Global vegetable oil consumption, by contrast,
FAO Food Outlook. is forecast to outpace production, influenced by re-
duced soybean outputs, resulting mainly from re-
The biannual publication provides updated market
assessments and forecasts for the production, utili- duced planting areas in Argentina, India, Ukraine
and the United States of America.
zation, trade, and stocks of major food commodities
including cereals, oilcrops, sugar, meat, dairy prod- --Global fisheries and aquaculture production is
ucts, and fisheries. The new edition offers addition- forecast to increase by 1.7 percent, with expectations
al insights into olive oil, fertilizer markets, and the of a 2.5 percent increase in per capita food consump-
global food import bill. tion of aquaculture products offsetting a decline in
consumption from capture fisheries.
“The rebound in global food production marks a
positive turning point for market stability. But behind Special chapters on olive oil trends and fertilizer-
these numbers lie persistent risks, from extreme markets
weather to fragile trade relations, that can quickly The FAO Food Outlook offers a detailed assessment
reshape global supply and access. Building resil- of the olive oil market, predicting a recovery from
ience across the agrifood system remains our great- recent drought conditions that curtailed output and
est challenge,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo drove up prices.
Torero.
Wholesale prices in Spain, the world’s leading pro-
Wheat, maize and rice markets are marked by ducer, and Greece have dropped by more than half
abundant exportable supplies, which have exerted since early 2024, although they remain at relatively
downward pressure on international prices. Mean- high levels in Italy. Ample rainfall throughout the
while, utilizations of wheat and especially rice are growing season in Tunisia points to a record-break-
expected to increase significantly, led by faster con- ing production of more than 400 000 tonnes, which
sumption growth in Low-Income Food Deficit Coun- could make the country the world’s second-largest
tries (LIFDCs).
olive oil producer in 2025/26.
Salient takeaways from the commodity analyses in-
clude: Lower prices are underpinning a consumption re-
covery, and global trade in olive oil could hit a his-
--Global wheat inventories are expected to expand torical high in the season ahead, although tariffs in
by 3.6 percent in the year ahead to reach their high- the United States of America may curb overall trade
est-ever level by the end of seasons in 2026, while volumes.

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2 Vol. 41 No. 9